and at least possible. Whether we argue for the maximum of possible information or the minimum of indisputable information depends on our objective (e.g., debunking unwarranted skepticism or populist naïveté). Most historians, however, are interested not only in what is absolutely certain or in what is potentially plausible but in what is most probable. And it is here that our consensus breaks down, again partly because scholars differ in how we estimate the reliability of our primary sources—the